Canada's 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan: What the Consultation Tells Us, What the Numbers Suggest, and How to Prepare

On May 12, 2026, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) launched a public consultation that will shape the next three years of Canadian immigration policy. The 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan — expected to be tabled in Parliament by November 2026 — will determine how many permanent residents Canada admits each year, which programs receive allocations, and how the balance between economic, family, and humanitarian immigration shifts. The consultation runs through June 14, 2026. This article breaks down what we know, what the data suggests is coming, and what applicants in every major program stream should be doing right now.

Where We Stand: The Current 2026–2028 Plan

To understand where Canada is heading, you need to know where it is. The current 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan — tabled in November 2025 — stabilized permanent resident admissions at 380,000 per year through 2028. This represented a major correction from 2024, when Canada admitted a record 484,000 permanent residents. The plan allocates admissions as follows:

• Economic class: 239,800 in 2026 rising to 244,700 in 2027–2028 (63–64% of total)
• Federal High Skilled (Express Entry): 109,000 in 2026, rising to 111,000 in 2027–2028
• Provincial Nominee Program (PNP): 91,500 in 2026, rising to 92,500 in 2027–2028
• Atlantic Immigration Program: 4,000 per year
• Federal Business (Start-Up Visa / Self-Employed): 500 per year
• Economic Pilots (Caregivers, Agri-Food, Community, EMPP): 8,175 in 2026, rising to 8,775 in 2027–2028
• Family class: 84,000 in 2026, dropping to 81,000 in 2027–2028
• Refugees & protected persons: 49,300 per year
• Humanitarian & compassionate: 6,900 in 2026, dropping to 5,000 in 2027–2028

The Three Government Commitments Shaping 2027–2029

The consultation survey is built around three explicit commitments the federal government has already made. These are not proposals — they are stated policy positions that will anchor the new plan:

• Reduce the temporary resident population to less than 5% of Canada's total population by the end of 2027. The non-permanent resident population peaked at 7.6% (approximately 3.1 million people) in October 2024 and had already declined to 6.8% by October 2025. The Parliamentary Budget Officer projects this target will be met.
• Stabilize permanent resident admissions at less than 1% of Canada's total population after 2027. With Canada's population at roughly 41 million, this implies a PR ceiling of approximately 405,000 — but could also mean the government holds steady at 380,000 or below.
• Increase Francophone immigration outside Quebec to 12% of PR admissions by 2029. The current target rises from 9% in 2026 to 10.5% in 2028. Reaching 12% by 2029 would mean approximately 45,600 Francophone admissions if the 380,000 base holds.

Our Projections: What 2027–2029 Will Likely Look Like

Based on the trajectory of the last three levels plans, stated government commitments, and the PBO's demographic analysis, here is what ITC iLand expects for the 2027–2029 plan. These are informed projections, not confirmed numbers — the final plan will be tabled in November:

• Total PR admissions: 370,000–385,000 per year. The government's "<1% of population" commitment allows up to ~405,000, but the political trend since 2024 has been toward restraint. We expect the target to hold at or slightly below the current 380,000.
• Express Entry (Federal High Skilled): 110,000–115,000 per year. This has been the most protected category across every recent plan — it consistently grows while other streams are cut.
• Provincial Nominee Program: 90,000–95,000 per year. After the dramatic PNP cut from 120,000 to 55,000 in the October 2024 plan — and the subsequent restoration to 91,500 in the 2026–2028 plan — the PNP allocation has stabilized. Provinces have fought hard for this capacity and we do not expect further significant cuts.
• Atlantic Immigration Program: 4,000–5,000 per year. Steady and unlikely to change materially.
• Federal Business / Start-Up Visa: 500 or fewer. The Start-Up Visa was suspended on December 31, 2025 with a backlog of 42,200 applications. A new entrepreneur pilot will replace it, but allocations will remain minimal — roughly 500 principal applicants per year.
• Economic Pilots (Caregivers, Community, EMPP): 8,000–10,000 per year. Slight growth possible as new caregiver pilots launched in March 2025 mature.
• Family Class: 78,000–82,000 per year. The downward trend continues as the government prioritizes economic immigration. Parents & Grandparents sponsorship likely stays capped at 15,000.
• Refugees & Protected Persons: 45,000–50,000 per year. The two-year initiative to grant PR to 115,000 protected persons already in Canada will be largely completed by 2027, which could free up space or reduce the urgency for new allocations.
• Temporary Residents: 350,000–370,000 new arrivals per year, continuing the downward trend from the 2025 high of 673,650.

The Start-Up Visa Collapse: What Happened and What Comes Next

No program has been hit harder by the policy shift than the Start-Up Visa (SUV). Here is the full picture: the SUV was suspended on December 31, 2025, after the backlog reached 42,200 applications — some with processing times estimated at ten years. Immigration Minister Lena Diab described it as hitting the "reset button" on federal business immigration. The decline in allocation tells the story clearly:

• 2024: approximately 5,000 admissions allocated
• 2025: reduced to 2,000–3,000 (under the October 2024 plan)
• 2026–2028: further reduced to just 500 principal applicants per year (a 90% cut from 2024)
• 2026+: program paused; a new entrepreneur pilot will replace it with even stricter criteria focused on high-growth sectors and applicants already in Canada on valid work permits

What This Means: Applicants with pending SUV applications face uncertainty. Under Bill C-12, the minister gains the power to cancel applications that do not meet new ministerial priority standards. Applicants with valid 2025 commitment certificates had until June 30, 2026 to submit their PR applications. If you have a pending SUV file, get legal advice on your status immediately.

The new entrepreneur pilot — expected to launch later in 2026 — will prioritize applicants already physically in Canada, in high-growth sectors, and backed by designated organizations that meet stricter oversight standards. Volume will be minimal: we project 300–500 spots per year at most.

Express Entry: The One Stream That Keeps Growing

If there is a winner in the current policy environment, it is Express Entry. Federal High Skilled allocations have grown through every levels plan since 2022, even as total immigration has been cut. The progression tells the story:

• 2024: approximately 110,000 admissions
• 2025: maintained at similar levels despite overall PR cuts from 500,000 to 395,000
• 2026: 109,000 allocated
• 2027–2028: 111,000 allocated
• 2027–2029 projection: 110,000–115,000 per year

Why Express Entry Is Being Protected

The government has made clear that it considers Express Entry the most efficient economic immigration tool — it selects for language ability, education, skilled work experience, and Canadian connections through the Comprehensive Ranking System. As Ottawa shifts toward smaller, higher-quality intakes, Express Entry's merit-based selection makes it the natural centrepiece. Category-based draws (healthcare, STEM, French-language, agriculture, transport) allow the government to target specific labour market needs without increasing overall numbers. If you have a strong CRS profile — or can improve it through language scores, education credential assessment, or a provincial nomination — Express Entry remains the most favourable pathway in Canadian immigration.

PNP: Restored but Watch Provincial Shifts

The Provincial Nominee Program's journey over the past two years has been dramatic. In the October 2024 plan, PNP was cut from approximately 120,000 to just 55,000 — a 54% reduction that shocked employers and provinces alike. The 2026–2028 plan restored it to 91,500 (rising to 92,500 in 2027–2028), reflecting intense provincial lobbying. However, the landscape within PNP is shifting fast:

• Ontario overhauled its entire OINP on May 30, 2026, scrapping all nine streams and replacing them with a new framework
• Saskatchewan has introduced capped sector windows with positions filling within hours
• Manitoba is running targeted draws for specific support-letter cohorts
• Nova Scotia implemented a 12-month EOI validity window — old profiles are being closed automatically
• British Columbia and Alberta continue to issue targeted tech and healthcare draws

Population Growth: The Bigger Picture from the PBO

The Parliamentary Budget Officer's analysis of the 2026–2028 plan paints a striking picture. Canada's population growth was essentially flat in 2026 — 0% — after years of record expansion. It is projected to recover to just 0.3% in 2027 and stabilize around 0.8% annually over the medium term. For context, the pre-2015 average was 1.1% per year. The non-permanent resident population peaked at approximately 3.1 million in October 2024 (7.6% of the total population) and is expected to fall to just under 5% by the end of 2027. This reduction is being driven by net outflows of study and work permit holders — people who are leaving Canada or transitioning to PR rather than renewing temporary status. This matters for applicants because it means the government's population targets are being met. There is no political pressure to increase immigration levels in the near term. If anything, the consultation questions are framed around whether current reductions have gone far enough.

How to Participate in the Consultation

The public consultation runs from May 12 to June 14, 2026. Anyone can participate — individuals, employers, settlement agencies, municipalities, educational institutions, and temporary residents currently in Canada. The online survey is available at canada.ca and covers five areas:

• How recent reductions in temporary residents and stabilized PR targets have affected your community
• What changes you would recommend to future immigration levels
• Regional pressures and demographic trends that require attention
• Long-term priorities beyond 2029
• System barriers that affect immigration access and outcomes

What You Should Do Right Now

Regardless of which program stream you are pursuing, the direction is clear: Canada is moving toward smaller intakes, higher selectivity, and faster processing for priority applicants. Here is how to position yourself:

• Express Entry candidates: focus on maximizing your CRS score — language scores (IELTS, CELPIP, TEF) and education credential assessments are the highest-return investments. A provincial nomination adds 600 points and virtually guarantees an invitation.
• PNP candidates: do not wait for the "old" streams to come back. Check whether your province has restructured its program and re-apply under new criteria if needed. Ontario candidates especially must re-assess after the May 30 OINP overhaul.
• Start-Up Visa applicants: if you have a pending application, consult a regulated immigration consultant about your file's status under Bill C-12. If you were planning to apply, pivot to the new entrepreneur pilot once details are announced — or explore PNP entrepreneur streams in provinces like Saskatchewan, Manitoba, or British Columbia.
• Family class sponsors: parents & grandparents sponsorship remains capped at 15,000 per year. Submit your interest to sponsor as early as possible when intake opens. Super Visa remains a practical interim option.
• Temporary residents in Canada: the government is prioritizing in-Canada transitions. If you are on a valid work permit with qualifying experience, explore whether PNP, Atlantic Immigration, caregiver pilots, or the In-Canada Workers Initiative can transition you to PR before your status expires.

Talk to ITC iLand

The 2027–2029 plan will be the most consequential immigration policy document since the major cuts of October 2024. The consultation closes June 14. The plan drops in November. Between now and then, the smartest thing an applicant can do is get a clear, honest assessment of where they stand and which pathway gives them the best chance. ITC iLand's licensed RCIC consultants — Ramin Asadi (R407111) and Mahmood-Babak Yaltaghian (R422527) — work with clients across Express Entry, PNP, Start-Up Visa transitions, family sponsorship, and Quebec programs. Book a consultation and we will tell you exactly what your options are.